Ukraine crisis: impacts on European markets

Insights

Ukraine crisis: impacts on European markets

Across Europe, market reaction to the Ukraine crisis has been strong but justified – European banks and other stocks with exposure to Russia have fallen by more than 30%. We do not believe there is systemic risk for the larger European institutions, but there may be further loan losses across the continent. European banks have significant excess capital – enough to prompt share buybacks – so while banks could lose equity, it should not represent a solvency risk.

Inflation and interest rates

Before the Russian invasion Europe was expecting the first European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike later in 2022. That is likely to be pushed back. The 10-year US Treasury yield has dropped only 20 basis points, however, indicating concern about inflation. We are monitoring the inflation outlook and any impact on interest rates in the longer term will be factored-in to our decision-making. Higher inflation, driven by energy prices, can increase cost pressures on companies. We look for stocks with solid pricing power and these, after some short-term dislocation, should continue to thrive – certainly more so than weaker competitors.
Interest rates are a key issue. In the US, the Federal Reserve is on track to deliver well-signalled hikes, but the ECB has been less keen. Firstly because higher interest rates will not cure higher energy prices and, secondly, because higher interest rates compounded with higher energy costs would be unpalatable for consumers (voters!) and would threaten recession.
However, if interest rates were to move to much higher levels – although our base case is that this is unlikely and has been delayed – it would impact the valuation of markets overall. The sustainable long-term compounders we favour are well placed to navigate the new environment in operational terms, but valuation impacts are a risk.
In our European equity portfolios we have no direct exposure to Russian, Belorussian or Ukrainian stocks, though indirect effects are impacting some banks and energy stocks. Even our indirect exposure is low and in line with the benchmark.
In addition to the obvious hit from energy prices, Europeans may experience a food price shock, and this could undermine the expected consumer upturn. This was the first year in a decade that Europe was expected to outgrow the US, with respective forecasts of 4% and 3.5% GDP growth1, although Europe’s forecast is boosted by the ending of pandemic restrictions – the US has already enjoyed this uplift. European consumers were expected to be the main drivers of this growth, spending the significant savings accumulated during the pandemic.
7 Março 2022
Francis Ellison
Francis Ellison
Client Portfolio Manager
Share article
Key topics
Related topics
Listen on Stitcher badge
Share article
Key topics
Related topics

PDF

Ukraine crisis: impacts on European markets

1 Columbia Threadneedle Investments, 28 February 2022

Important Information

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). This is a marketing communication.

This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services. Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. The securities included herein are for illustrative purposes only, subject to change and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Securities discussed may or may not prove profitable. The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be suitable for all investors.
Past performance does not guarantee future results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either. Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.

In Australia: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited [“TIS”], ARBN 600 027 414. TIS is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act and relies on Class Order 03/1102 in marketing and providing financial
services to Australian wholesale clients as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. TIS is regulated in Singapore (Registration number: 201101559W) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), which differ from Australian laws.

In Singapore: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore 239519, which is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Registration number:
201101559W. This document has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

In Japan: Issued by Columbia Threadneedle Investments Japan Co., Ltd. Financial Instruments Business Operator, The Director-General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO) No.3281, and a member of Japan Investment Advisers Association.

In Hong Kong: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services Hong Kong Limited 天利投資管理香港有限公司. Unit 3004, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Hong Kong, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to conduct Type 1 regulated activities
(CE:AQA779). Registered in Hong Kong under the ce (Chapter 622), No. 1173058.

In the UK: issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, registered in England and Wales, No. 573204. Registered Office: Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London EC4N 6AG. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

In the EEA: Issued by Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A. Registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Registered No. B 110242 44, rue de la Vallée, L-2661 Luxembourg, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg.

In the Middle East: this document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). This document is intended to provide distributors with information about Group products and services and is not for further
distribution. The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge and who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty and no other Person should act upon it.

In Switzerland: Threadneedle Asset Management Limited. Registered in England and Wales, Registered No. 573204, Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London EC4N 6AG, United Kingdom. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, Registered address: Claridenstrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.

Related Insights

11 Novembro 2024

Paul Doyle

Head of Europe ex-UK Equities

European reform must wait as the US continues to advance

The continent is struggling with competitiveness and needs to cut interest rates faster – but even that may not be enough.
5 Novembro 2024

Scott Woods

Portfolio Manager

WD-40, the graveyard cabinet and a hunt for special smaller companies

I spend about nine weeks a year in a rental car looking for companies all over the world, discovering their products, operations and customers. Here's what I'm looking for.
9 Outubro 2024

Neil Robson

Head of Global Equities

Five quality growth stocks with potential in all weathers

From US railroads to e-commerce platforms. We highlight five diverse businesses with one thing in common - strong competitive advantages.
12 Novembro 2024

Fixed Income Desk

In Credit - Weekly Snapshot

In Credit Weekly Snapshot – November 2024

Our fixed income team provide their weekly snapshot of market events.
12 Novembro 2024

Vicki Bakhshi

Director, Responsible Investment

COP29: Will it deliver on climate finance?

With mitigation and adaptation needs running into hundreds of billions of dollars, and public finances stretched, the private sector will need to deliver much of the necessary ‘climate finance’
11 Novembro 2024

Paul Doyle

Head of Europe ex-UK Equities

European reform must wait as the US continues to advance

The continent is struggling with competitiveness and needs to cut interest rates faster – but even that may not be enough.
true
true

Important Information

For use by professional clients and/or equivalent investor types in your jurisdiction (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients). This is a marketing communication.

This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services. Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. The securities included herein are for illustrative purposes only, subject to change and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Securities discussed may or may not prove profitable. The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be suitable for all investors.
Past performance does not guarantee future results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either. Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.

In Australia: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited [“TIS”], ARBN 600 027 414. TIS is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act and relies on Class Order 03/1102 in marketing and providing financial
services to Australian wholesale clients as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. TIS is regulated in Singapore (Registration number: 201101559W) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), which differ from Australian laws.

In Singapore: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore 239519, which is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Registration number:
201101559W. This document has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

In Japan: Issued by Columbia Threadneedle Investments Japan Co., Ltd. Financial Instruments Business Operator, The Director-General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO) No.3281, and a member of Japan Investment Advisers Association.

In Hong Kong: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services Hong Kong Limited 天利投資管理香港有限公司. Unit 3004, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Hong Kong, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to conduct Type 1 regulated activities
(CE:AQA779). Registered in Hong Kong under the ce (Chapter 622), No. 1173058.

In the UK: issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, registered in England and Wales, No. 573204. Registered Office: Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London EC4N 6AG. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

In the EEA: Issued by Threadneedle Management Luxembourg S.A. Registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Registered No. B 110242 44, rue de la Vallée, L-2661 Luxembourg, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg.

In the Middle East: this document is distributed by Columbia Threadneedle Investments (ME) Limited, which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). This document is intended to provide distributors with information about Group products and services and is not for further
distribution. The information in this document is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for persons with appropriate investment knowledge and who meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a Professional Client or Market Counterparty and no other Person should act upon it.

In Switzerland: Threadneedle Asset Management Limited. Registered in England and Wales, Registered No. 573204, Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London EC4N 6AG, United Kingdom. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services AG, Registered address: Claridenstrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.

Também poderá gostar de

Sobre nós

Milhões de pessoas em todo o mundo confiam na Columbia Threadneedle Investments para gerir o seu dinheiro. Acompanhamos investimentos para investidores individuais, consultores financeiros, gestores de património, bem como companhias de seguros, fundos de pensões e outras instituições.

Contactos

Para mais informações sobre a Columbia Threadneedle Investments ou os nossos produtos, entre em contacto connosco ou com o seu consultor.

Responsabilidade social corporativa

Nuestro objetivo consiste en obtener resultados positivos que satisfagan las necesidades de nuestras partes interesadas, y nos comprometemos a actuar siempre de forma responsable y transparente, velando por los intereses de las personas que nos confían la gestión de sus inversiones.